Methodology
How 26 indicators become 6 battery scores — methodology v2.2.0
How a score is built
Each indicator is fetched in its own unit, then mapped onto a 0–100 scale by an explicit rule declared in the registry — the bounds below. A battery score is the weighted sum of its indicators: score = Σ weightᵢ × indicatorᵢ, with weights summing to exactly 1.0. There is no hidden term and no discretionary adjustment: the frontend you are reading never computes a score, it only displays what the pipeline computed.
100 means healthy, 0 means critical. Bounds are calibrated so that within each battery, the worst episode since 1990 lands around 10–25 and the best recent period around 70–85.
Missing data never moves a score. When a source has not published yet, the last known value stays in the calculation — for annual sources that is the normal regime, not a failure. What changes is coverage: the share of weight backed by data that is still within its expected publication cycle. Below 60% coverage a battery is flagged Degraded. We deliberately do not renormalize weights onto the available indicators: a flaky source would make a public score zigzag with no real-world change behind it.
Every version is permanent. The registry carries a semantic version; any change to a weight or a bound requires a version bump and a changelog entry, enforced by CI. Past scores keep the version they were computed under, so a revision never silently rewrites history.
The 6 batteries
Environment
Physical and biological state of the planet: climate, oceans, disasters, forests, air, biodiversity. Global aggregate only.
| Indicator | Weight | Normalization | Cadence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Global temperature anomaly (vs pre-industrial) °C above pre-industrial (1880-1899 proxy, GISTEMP + 0.26) | 25% | Linear (clamped) 1 → 100, 2 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range -0.5 to 3.5 | Monthly overdue after 3 months | NASA GISS GISTEMP v4 Public-domain |
Global mean sea level rise mm above the 1993 altimetry baseline | 15% | Linear (clamped) 0 → 100, 300 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range -50 to 700 | Monthly overdue after 45 days | NASA-SSH Global Mean Sea Level (PO.DAAC / Earthdata) Public-domain |
Extreme events (weighted GDACS alerts) weighted score over a rolling 90-day window | 15% | Logarithmic 250 → 100, 4000 → 0 (logarithmic)plausible range 0 to 10000 | Real time overdue after 40 days | GDACS (EU/UN disaster alerts) Free-with-attribution |
Global annual tree cover loss million hectares / year | 15% | Linear (clamped) 10 → 100, 35 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 5 to 60 | Annual overdue after 2.9 years | Global Forest Watch Data API CC-BY-4.0 |
Global PM2.5 exposure (population-weighted) µg/m³ (annual mean) | 10% | Linear (clamped) 10 → 100, 40 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 5 to 60 | Annual overdue after 4.1 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Red List Index (SDG 15.5.1, world) index 0-1 (1 = minimal extinction risk) | 20% | Linear (clamped) 1 → 100, 0.5 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0 to 1 | Annual overdue after 3.0 years | Our World in Data CC-BY-4.0 |
Economy
Global macroeconomic health: growth momentum, labour market, price stability and fiscal sustainability. World aggregates.
| Indicator | Weight | Normalization | Cadence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
World GDP growth % per year (constant USD) | 30% | Linear (clamped) 6 → 100, -4 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range -12 to 12 | Annual overdue after 20 months | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
World unemployment (ILO model) % of the labour force | 20% | Linear (clamped) 3 → 100, 8 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0 to 30 | Annual overdue after 2.0 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
World inflation (CPI) % per year | 20% | Target band 1–3 → 100, falling to 0 at -2 and 10plausible range -5 to 50 | Annual overdue after 20 months | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
World public debt % of world GDP | 30% | Linear (clamped) 50 → 100, 150 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 10 to 300 | Twice a year overdue after 3.0 years | IMF Data (WEO, API SDMX 2.1) Free-with-attribution |
Society
Human capital and social cohesion worldwide: education, health, gender equality and interpersonal violence.
| Indicator | Weight | Normalization | Cadence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Education Index (HDI component) index 0-1 | 30% | Linear (clamped) 0.85 → 100, 0.4 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0 to 1 | Annual overdue after 3.6 years | UNDP Human Development Reports CC-BY-3.0-IGO |
Life expectancy at birth (world) years | 20% | Linear (clamped) 85 → 100, 55 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 40 to 90 | Annual overdue after 2.9 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Infant mortality (world) deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births Deliberate partial overlap with life_expectancy, of which infant mortality is a component — documented in the methodology.
| 15% | Logarithmic 5 → 100, 100 → 0 (logarithmic)plausible range 1 to 160 | Annual overdue after 2.9 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Gender Inequality Index (GII, world) index 0-1 | 20% | Linear (clamped) 0.05 → 100, 0.7 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0 to 1 | Annual overdue after 3.6 years | UNDP Human Development Reports CC-BY-3.0-IGO |
Intentional homicides (world) victims per 100,000 people | 15% | Linear (clamped) 1 → 100, 12 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0.5 to 30 | Annual overdue after 4.1 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Innovation
Global innovation capacity and technology diffusion: R&D effort, connectivity and digital infrastructure.
| Indicator | Weight | Normalization | Cadence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
World R&D expenditure % of world GDP | 40% | Linear (clamped) 3.5 → 100, 1.5 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0.5 to 5 | Annual overdue after 4.1 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Internet access % of world population using the internet | 35% | Linear (clamped) 95 → 100, 30 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0 to 100 | Annual overdue after 2.0 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Digital infrastructure (fixed + mobile composite) composite index 0-100 Composite of fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions per 100 people, combined by an explicit formula rather than taken from a single published series. Usage and installed capacity are tracked separately: their divergence is itself a signal.
| 25% | Passthrough already a 0–100 index (×1)plausible range 0 to 100 | Annual overdue after 2.0 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Governance
State of the world's political institutions: electoral democracy, political stability, control of corruption, voice and accountability. Every indicator is a population-weighted world aggregate — what the average human being actually experiences.
| Indicator | Weight | Normalization | Cadence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Electoral democracy (V-Dem polyarchy, population-weighted) index 0-1 | 35% | Linear (clamped) 0.55 → 100, 0.15 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0 to 1 | Annual overdue after 2.3 years | V-Dem (via the OWID mirror — CC BY-SA propagates to the Governance score) CC-BY-SA-4.0 |
Political stability and absence of violence (WGI PV, population-weighted) WGI estimate (≈ -2.5 to +2.5) | 25% | Linear (clamped) 0 → 100, -1 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range -2.5 to 2.5 | Annual overdue after 2.7 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Control of corruption (WGI CC, population-weighted) WGI estimate (≈ -2.5 to +2.5) | 20% | Linear (clamped) 0 → 100, -1 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range -2.5 to 2.5 | Annual overdue after 2.7 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Voice and accountability (WGI VA, population-weighted) WGI estimate (≈ -2.5 to +2.5) | 20% | Linear (clamped) 0 → 100, -1 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range -2.5 to 2.5 | Annual overdue after 2.7 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Resources
Resource pressure and the energy transition: energy sufficiency, decarbonisation of electricity, critical mineral reserves and freshwater.
| Indicator | Weight | Normalization | Cadence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Energy supply per capita (world) kWh per person per year Deliberate editorial stance: too much energy is itself a pressure signal, so this indicator is scored as a band rather than a ladder. The consequence is assumed — the score peaked before ~2005.
| 30% | Target band 12000–17500 → 100, falling to 0 at 5000 and 35000plausible range 3000 to 50000 | Annual overdue after 21 months | Our World in Data CC-BY-4.0 |
Renewable share of world electricity % of generation (12-month rolling average) | 35% | Linear (clamped) 90 → 100, 15 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 0 to 100 | Monthly overdue after 4 months | Ember electricity data CC-BY-4.0 |
Critical mineral reserves — years remaining (basket median) years (median reserves/production: Cu, Li, Co, Ni, rare earths) | 15% | Linear (clamped) 100 → 100, 15 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 5 to 500 | Annual overdue after 2.2 years | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries Public-domain |
Freshwater withdrawals per capita (world) m³ per person per year | 20% | Linear (clamped) 350 → 100, 800 → 0 (linear, clamped)plausible range 100 to 2000 | Annual overdue after 8.2 years | World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) CC-BY-4.0 |
Sources and licences
Every source is open, automatable and legally redistributable. Anything that failed one of those three tests was cut rather than approximated — the Democracy Index (proprietary), Gallup World Poll (proprietary) and the Transparency International CPI (CC BY-ND, which forbids derivatives) are not in any formula.
| Source | Licence | Access | Publishes every |
|---|---|---|---|
World Bank Open Data (WDI + WGI) https://api.worldbank.org/v2 | CC-BY-4.0 | Open | 12 months |
IMF Data (WEO, API SDMX 2.1) https://api.imf.org/external/sdmx/2.1 | Free-with-attribution | Open | 6 months |
Our World in Data https://catalog.ourworldindata.org | CC-BY-4.0 | Open | 12 months |
NASA GISS GISTEMP v4 https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp | Public-domain | Open | 45 days |
NASA-SSH Global Mean Sea Level (PO.DAAC / Earthdata) https://archive.podaac.earthdata.nasa.gov/podaac-ops-cumulus-protected/NASA_SSH_GMSL_INDICATOR | Public-domain | API key | 7 days |
GDACS (EU/UN disaster alerts) https://www.gdacs.org/gdacsapi | Free-with-attribution | Open | 2 days |
Global Forest Watch Data API https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org | CC-BY-4.0 | API key | 12 months |
Ember electricity data https://api.ember-energy.org | CC-BY-4.0 | API key | 45 days |
V-Dem (via the OWID mirror — CC BY-SA propagates to the Governance score) https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electoral-democracy-index | CC-BY-SA-4.0 | Open | 13 months |
UNDP Human Development Reports https://hdr.undp.org/data-center | CC-BY-3.0-IGO | Open | 13 months |
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center | Public-domain | Open | 13 months |
Share-alike notice on the Governance score
The electoral democracy indicator comes from V-Dem, published under CC BY-SA 4.0. Share-alike propagates to derivatives, so the Governance battery score is itself published under CC BY-SA 4.0. The other five batteries derive only from CC BY and public-domain sources.
Editorial choices we stand behind
Normalization bounds are judgement calls. These five are the ones most open to attack — all of them deliberate, and all of them defensible only if we write them down in the open.
Energy per capita is scored as a band, not a ladder
More energy is not automatically better. The Resources battery treats 12,000–17,500 kWh per person per year as the healthy band, anchored on the ETH Zurich 2000-watt society. The consequence is deliberate: this score peaked before ~2005 and has been falling since. We are saying that today's growth in energy use is itself a pressure signal.
The Red List Index is rescaled to 0.5–1.0, not passed through
A straight passthrough would score biodiversity around 72 and move roughly one point per decade — a reassuring number for what the UN calls an extinction crisis. Rescaling from 0.5 makes the trend legible, at the cost of a lower bound that is our editorial judgement rather than a published threshold.
The governance bounds are relative, and demanding
The Worldwide Governance Indicators are built so that the average country sits near 0 each year. We score the population-weighted world against a ceiling of 0.0 — meaning 100 would require the average human to live in a country of average governance. That has never happened in 29 years of data. We keep the target rather than flatter the score.
Earthquakes count in Environment
GDACS mixes climatic and geophysical hazards. Earthquakes say nothing about human-driven environmental decline, but their civilizational impact is real and the battery is called Environment, not Climate. Filtering them out would be the more contestable choice.
Temperature is scored against 2.0 °C, and will need recalibrating
The Paris upper limit is the most defensible public anchor, but on the current trajectory this indicator reaches 0 around 2045 while the world keeps warming. A recalibration will be legitimate then — and it will be a documented methodology version, never a silent adjustment.
Known limits
- World aggregates only. Every score describes the planet, not a country. Country-level scoring is a separate project, not a toggle.
- Almost everything here moves once a year. Only 5 of the 26 indicators republish more often: Global temperature anomaly (vs pre-industrial) (monthly), Global mean sea level rise (monthly), Extreme events (weighted GDACS alerts) (real time), World public debt (twice a year), Renewable share of world electricity (monthly). The other 21 describe a calendar year and arrive months — sometimes years — after it ends. Society, Innovation, Governance are built entirely on annual series. The slowest, Freshwater withdrawals per capita (world), may lag 8.2 years before we flag it overdue.
- Gender inequality is not income inequality. The World Bank Gini series has no world aggregate at all, so the Society battery measures gender inequality and says so, rather than implying a coverage it does not have.
- The WGI scale is relative by construction. Governance measures the gap between the average human's country and the average country, not an absolute level of good government.
What the pipeline actually collected last night, source by source, is on the status page.